I'm sure most readers have learned by now of the suicide bomber who killed 15 people in Volgograd. The city's in southern Russia, only a few hundred miles from Sochi, where the 2014 Winter Olympics are to take place in February.
I'm afraid this incident may portend an upsurge in Islamic fundamentalist terrorism in and around southern Russia during the Games. It's very likely that terrorists regard the Games as an ideal opportunity to gain publicity for their cause, and inflict terror on the Russian government and people, whom they blame for the plight of their fellow religionists in territories such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia. For an excellent in-depth overview of the situation, read this leaked memo from the US Embassy in Moscow in 2006.
Islam has been repressed more or less savagely in the region since Tsarist times, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, religious fundamentalists tried to use the resulting confusion to re-establish their dominance of the area. The new Russian government fought back, resulting in bitter conflicts such as the First and Second Chechen War, disturbances amounting to civil war in several neighboring republics, etc. Many of the terrorists who instigated and fought those wars managed to evade capture. More than a few of them have fought in support of Islamic fundamentalists in other conflicts. (Some are currently fighting in Syria.) Their ideology has even reached the USA, with the Boston bombers reportedly influenced by Chechen revolutionary Islamic ideology.
If you or anyone you know is/are planning to travel to the Winter Olympics, you might want to keep the risk of terrorism firmly in mind. I'd say that, based on their past actions and demonstrated ruthlessness, it's almost guaranteed that fundamentalist terrorists will try to take advantage of the influx of tourists to 'make a statement'.
Remember the Moscow theater siege?
Remember Beslan?
I'd rather not have my readers caught up in something like that, thank you very much . . . so if you're heading for the Winter Olympics, please be as careful as you possibly can. Personally, I wouldn't go.
Peter
